Otaku Ops

Conspiracy Plausibility

Is the truth really out there?

πŸ“œ The Origins

Based on the 'Conspiracy Equation' by Dr. David Robert Grimes. It calculates how long a secret can actually be kept based on the number of people involved.

πŸš€ Master the Tool

Enter how many people are in on it, how many years it must stay buried, and how leaky the average insider is. Grimes' equation returns the probability the secret has already leaked.

The calculator
TOP SECRET

Dept. of Truth

CASE FILE: Birds Are Drones Β· GRIMES PROTOCOL

People In On It411,000
Years To Stay Hidden50y
Leakiness / PersonΒ·Yr4Γ—10⁻⁢

Grimes calibrated this at 4Γ—10⁻⁢ from real leaks.

100%
Chance The Secret Has Leaked
TOO BIG TO HIDE
<1
Years to 50/50 odds
<1
Avg. years to first leak

Grimes' equation: P(leak) = 1 βˆ’ eβˆ’pΒ·NΒ·t, with p = per-person yearly leak chance, N = conspirators, t = years.

Connecting the Dots

Humans are pattern-seeking machines. We see faces in clouds and conspiracies in coincidence. The Conspiracy Correlation Coefficient ($C^3$) measures how deep down the rabbit hole you are.

Occam's Razor vs. The Truth

  • Occam's Razor: The simplest explanation is usually right. (The government is just incompetent, not evil).
  • The Theorist's Butterknife: The most complex explanation is the most fun. (The government is run by Lizard People who feed on incompetence).

The Scale

  • Level 1: "The government listens to my phone." (Proven Fact).
  • Level 5: "JFK is alive and running a crypto scam in the Bahamas." (Unlikely).
  • Level 10: "The Earth is hollow and holds a second sun." (Seek help).
Pro tips
01Three can keep a secret, if two are dead.
02Moon landing conspiracies involve too many people to stay secret.
03The 'Birds Aren't Real' theory is 100% plausible (just kidding... or am I?).

The Fine Print (FAQ)

Are birds real?
No. They are government surveillance drones recharging on power lines. (This is a meme, please treat birds with respect).
Is the Earth flat?
No. Ancient Greeks proved it was round with two sticks. Don't go backwards.
Why do we love conspiracies?
It feels good to have 'secret knowledge'. It makes a chaotic world feel ordered and intentional, even if the intentions are bad.