First Contact Probability
Probability Factor Analysis:
N = R* ⋅ fp ⋅ ne ⋅ fl ⋅ fi ⋅ fc ⋅ L
Estimated number of detectable civilizations in the Milky Way:
Key Strengths
Major Hurdles
Scanning Cosmic Background...
Are we alone? Input the variables and find out.
First Contact Probability
Estimated number of detectable civilizations in the Milky Way:
Scanning Cosmic Background...
The Drake Equation is a probabilistic argument used to arrive at an estimate of the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. The equation was written in 1961 by Frank Drake, not for purposes of quantifying the number of civilizations, but as a way to stimulate scientific dialogue at the world's first SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) conference.
The equation is a simple multiplication of a series of factors, each of which is a subject of ongoing scientific debate. This calculator allows you to play with those factors and see how they affect the final outcome.
The Fermi Paradox is the apparent contradiction between the high probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations. The paradox is named after physicist Enrico Fermi, who is said to have asked, "Where is everybody?"
There are many possible solutions to the Fermi Paradox, ranging from the optimistic (they're out there, but we just haven't found them yet) to the pessimistic (intelligent life is extremely rare, or it inevitably destroys itself). This calculator allows you to explore some of those possibilities.
SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence) is a collective name for a number of activities undertaken to search for intelligent extraterrestrial life. SETI projects use radio telescopes to listen for narrow-bandwidth radio signals from space.
To date, there has been no confirmed evidence of extraterrestrial life. However, the search continues, and new discoveries are being made all the time.
The Great Filter is a hypothesis that suggests that there is some obstacle to the development of intelligent life that is so great that it prevents most civilizations from ever reaching a point where they can be detected by others.